Saturday 24 December 2011

Luck Of The Draw

With not much football today, for me the focus is on the NFL where there are a number of games on the calendar. A few selections for tomorrow from the Tipster League members, with Griff hoping to end his run of 20 consecutive EPL losses with a draw between Sunderland and Everton. The XX Draws have stuttered in the last few weeks, and in the EPL alone is on a run of 9 consecutive losers. The EPL does seem to have been a tough division to find winners (draws) in of late. Not sure if that is down to a lack of draws, or whether the typical percentage are still hitting, only in unexpected places. The Green Pullover has a few draws tomorrow:
Mark Iverson wrote a post a few days ago detailing his professional approach to trading covering what events he bets on, and what his expected profit will be from them. To some extent, I do the same thing, but with a 'proper' job that often means an irregular work schedule, I can only plan ahead to a certain extent. I have the pleasure of being on-call on Boxing Day for example, and expected to work on New Year's Day and Monday the 2nd! With bonuses and pay raises to be determined early in January, it's not a good time to upset the bosses. I also noticed that Mark mentioned that he has not had a losing month in five and a half years, which is most impressive. I have few losing months, but they do happen. One this year, three in 2010, one in 2009, two in 2008, three in 2007 and one in 2006. Frustrating, but as with any losing run, if you can look back and see the big picture and keep the losses in perspective, it's not a big deal. While I was on Mark's blog, my eye was drawn to his link to the hapless Odwyer's rather sad blog, which hasn't changed in message since I last checked it several months ago.
It's frustrating because I know I can make this pay big if I had some kind of stability, but I've not had that for a good year now.
He opens his latest post with
I must be one of the few people in profit on Betfair that don't have a penny to their name. How's that for poor money management?! The majority of what I made in the last few months was used to pay-off what I owed, which left a small fraction, which I lost after that. It still left me in profit of over £700 over a 3 month period, but I don't even have 2 pounds in my Betfair account right now.
Clueless, but if you are playing with the rent money, you're never going to be able to build on any success, not to mention that any success will be fleeting if it is the result of luck rather than an edge. It's the golden rule of investing - don't play with money that you can't afford to lose.

An amusing reply from Gundulf on the NBA who wrote:
Thanks for that Cassini. As the last time I watched a basketball game it featured Meadowlark Lemon and Curly it would seem that I am out of touch with the money making opportunities presented.
Perhaps a little. Merry Xmas to all of you.


Average Guy said...

Hello Cassini, you may not know this but I believe you are the Yoda of the sports betting world. I need your advice so less of the prostration from me, please tell me what is the roasting time for a boned and rolled turkey breast of about 3.2 kg ?

If you don't know, nobody does.

gundulf said...

Lol AG. If Cassini knows he ain't telling! For me, as it's now nearly Boxing Day, I'd suggest that if you and yours are lolling around replete and feeling smugly self satisfied you cooked it long enough.

If your evening has been interrupted by frequent visits to the khazi then perhaps you should have waited for Cassini to answer!