Wednesday 14 December 2011

Shackles And Treacle

Betslayer wrote:
Loving the blog, wish I could find something interesting to say amongst the stats haha anyway....I'm interested in the Super Pc comments, I assume from that, that you have a very efficient percentage on your trading....I have been paying PC since the v start, but am presently at 23% so don't have to pay....have you any plans to churn....I would have thought with things like the xx that wouldn't be a problem, my percentage has really improved since doing outright draw bets that at the mo are breakeven but over a large amount of bets!
Churning is great in theory, but the problem is that I am so far in, that the logistics of churning enough to make a dent in my Gross Profit / Commission Generated percentage (currently at 7.03% - the number Betfair use for determining Super PC) make it impossible. The regular PC means that the Total Charges stay at around at least 20%. Yes, the football bets do help, but the majority of my wins come from in-play trading where losses are small and wins a lot larger.

A second comment on my last post, later removed by the author so I shall keep it anonymous, was:
you are serious? you are going to keep your betfair account when you get slogged more than 50% of all profits? I can think of many alternatives that would instantly double your profits - your best trade ever.
but then of course fails to offer any of the "many alternatives" that supposedly exist. If the Super Premium Charge rules were in place when I started this venture,, then yes, I would have had time to prepare for it, but to change the rules and find that to my surprise, the marathon has turned into a sprint, and I am rounding the last corner, makes it impossible to do much about. When I cross the line though, I will still be allowed to run another lap, only this time I'll be running through treacle, and wearing shackles. As I wrote before though, 50% of something is better than 50% of nothing. The liquidity on other sites simply isn't there, at least not now, and cutting off the nose to spite the face isn't a useful plan.

A couple of Unders came in yesterday, Genoa v Internazionale (0-1) and Koln v Mainz 05 (1-1), although Football Elite tipped Koln which dented the profit a little.

The entries are in for the free competition to predict the date of this blog's 333,333rd hit, and they range from as soon as December 22nd to as far away as February 3rd. Consensus falls on December 28th. Given that my Free Betting Systems post from three years ago is my second most popular all-time, you will understand why I was expecting quite a deluge of entries for a risk-free competition. In the end, it was more of a trickle. Strange how the same readership are on the one hand looking for an easy win, yet are unnecessarily cautious when presented with a genuine well-intentioned offer.

1 comment:

Betslayer said...

Hi Cassini,
thanks for the response, yeah the whole thing stinks. I had enough of a shock with the first one. I was probably only ever around 15% and with the adjustment of doing more 'churn' have managed to get to 20%+ but lord only knows how possible it is to get near 40% in the ever decressing time I have left. I fully understand you have a problem if you are at 7.3% hence my question. Its a shame the powers that be at betfair have no clue how their business model works or how hopes and dreams are what drive the vast majority to embark on this 'hobby'. Cheers Betslayer