Wednesday 21 December 2011

Winners Overrated

BubblesBrian is having trouble getting his head around the concept that you are not looking for winners when betting, but value. He writes:

I mean if let’s say the team at the top of the premiership plays the lowest team in the lowest league then surely the top team should win and the odds will show this. Yet there are people who won’t take this bet just because its not value, or on the flip side they will bet on the losing team just because it represents value, almost guaranteeing a losing bet.
He adds:
Having said all this I am not saying that there is no such thing as value or that you don’t need value to succeed. All I am saying is that it is something that I don’t fully understand, I have yet to read something that makes it concrete in my mind that not betting on who I believe will win just because it’s not value is a good thing. I mean I could just say that every bet I make is value and because its subjective, even if I am losing then there’s not really anything or anyone that can say otherwise is there.
Think of a roulette wheel, 36 numbers plus the zero, with the probability of any one number being 1 in 37 - 36/1 or 37.0 in Betfair terms. If a casino were to offer you the zero at 50 to 1 for an unlimited number of spins, would you pass this up because each bet would be "almost guaranteed to lose"? Betting is not about finding winners. Bragging to your buddies might be, but if you are serious about making money from your betting, you are only interested in value, which may indeed be subjective, but is as real as the P&L on your statement.


Anonymous said...

Thanks for the remarks on your blog.

You say that "Betting is not about finding winners.", now I'm not being pedantic or ignorant here, but surely that's what betting is precisely all about. Finding winners that make you more money than the losing bets.

As I mentioned my biggest problem is that it's so subjective, two different people could bet on exactly the same results and generate a profit, one can say they followed value the can state that they went with gut feeling, yet you would say they have both achieved value. Yet who is right? The person who admits they chose value or the person that denied it? Because it's subjective there is no definite answer.

I am a little fish in the shark infested waters at the moment, so as such I don't fully understand every concept about the gambling world. And obviously I am open to learning about it in order to help myself succeed. I will hopefully have a eureka moment when finally it clicks and suddenly it becomes clear. Until then I will continue to search out good guides and read what I can find to improve my knowledge.

GolfingGolfer said...

"It doesn't matter how often you are right or wrong - it only matters how much you make when you are right, versus how much you lose when you are wrong."

George Soros