Tuesday, 13 December 2011

NBA Countdown

Like a big kid, I am counting down the days to Xmas. Not so much to celebrate the birthday anniversary of Tim Tebow's personal saviour, in fact not at all for that reason, but more importantly there are just twelve days to go until the 66th NBA season belatedly commences with a reduced 66 game schedule. Nice symmetry there. Pre-season games being this Friday, each team has two, and then it all begins for real with five games on Xmas Day, for four whole months.

Better late than never. The cloud in the silver lining is that the Super Premium Charge will now be triggered that much sooner. My historical daily average is almost 50% higher during the core NBA season months of November through March so I figure I have about three months remaining before I am hit, and then it's a brand new ball game. Taking all the risk, and handing back 50% of winnings is tough to swallow, but as I have written before, in the absence of viable alternatives, making £100 and ending up with £50 is still better than making nothing, unless the new hourly rate drops below minimum wage of course.

Scott Ferguson generously included a link to the Betfair Academy Handbook in his latest post. The handbook is well worth a read, with some good advice towards the end, although nothing that readers of this blog will be unaware of, but this caught my eye since it backs up my comment from a couple of days ago about being more likely to find value at Preston North End v Stevenage than at Real Madrid v Barcelona.
Always assume someone has done more research than you. Someone, somewhere will have spent hours or even days studying all the form and statistical data they can get hold of for this event. On a Monday night Premiership football match, you might be betting against 20,000 people. Do you honestly think you are better than all of them? The bigger the event, the more likely it is than somewhere knows their stuff better than you do.
Written in 2006, and updated for 2008, the handbook makes a brief mention of the Premium Charge with
Betfair will never close down winners – we only take commission from net winnings*. How much you can get set for depends on other customers and your trading ability.
The asterisk explains that "Premium charges may apply to a minimal number of customers". It should actually read "How much you can get set for depends not so much on your trading ability, but on how much Betfair can squeeze out of you before you call it quits". There's also this:
Do some homework - work out which bookmaker is good at certain events, for example the less popular football leagues. You could spend months working out who the best judge is on the English Premiership, but the matches are so popular and the exchange markets so tight, that it is very hard to make it pay as a ‘trader’. The smaller and less popular the market, the more time you have to prepare.
I do realise, by the way, that my focusing on the top five leagues in Europe could be seen as ignoring this advice, but in reply, I would say that I do not look at these matches as a trader, although on days like yesterday when my Under 2.5 bet on Chelsea v Manchester City went down to a late penalty, perhaps I should start!

Incidentally, if you've not read Scott Ferguson's interview over at Centre Court Trading, check that out too. A fascinating insight from a former Betfair insider.

"Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune." - Jim Rohn


Betslayer said...

Hi Cassini,
Loving the blog, wish I could find something interesting to say amongst the stats haha anyway....I'm interested in the Super Pc comments, I assume from that, that you have a very effciient percentage on your trading....I have been paying PC since the v start, but am presently at 23% so don't have to pay....have you any plans to churn....I would have thought with things like the xx that wouldn't be a problem, my percentage has really improved since doing outright draw bets that at the mo are breakeven but over a large amount of bets! Cheers BetsLayer

Jonathan Lowe said...
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