Thursday 22 December 2011

Market Personalities

Markets have their own unique personalities. Gundulf said...
The pre-determined direction of price movements in a football match are surely down to two main factors - time decay and goals. Are they not also the key drivers in basketball and nfl? If not, why are those two different? (I know little of basketball and absolutely nothing of NFL, so this isn't a 'flippant' question btw)
Time and goals are indeed the main factors in a football betting market, but goals are a rare commodity. What it boils down to is that there's a big difference in the in-play markets between a low-scoring sport such as football, and high-scoring sports, such as basketball, tennis, or the NFL. In the NBA, it is not unusual to see 1.0x hit on both sides during a game. Just last night, in a pre-season game, Miami Heat had a 21 point lead over Orlando Magic, and traded at 1.03 before the Magic got their outside game going and ended up winning by six. Anyone who knows the NBA, and knows how strong the Orlando Magic are from three-point range, (number one), would have been all over that 1.0x as soon as the run of misses came to an end. Low-risk, high-reward. A seemingly big lead can vanish in a hurry, and in pre-season games, coaches will often rest their star players and give bench warmers a run out - often the only action these players see all season! These leads vanish over and over again. Here's the chart for Orlando:
and just to give you an idea of how the American version of football can be perfect for trading, here's the chart from last night's game:
A little more interesting for trading than football? Just a tad.

I mentioned the LAy Laykers the other day, and their remote chances of any success have gone even further south with the news that Kobe Bryant has "sprained ligaments in his right wrist". Is it a coincidence that he has recently split from his wife? The Laykers lost again last night and are win-less in all pre-season games with their season starting on Xmas Day v Chicago Bulls. (That's all TWO pre-season games by the way).


Tennis Trade Strategies said...

How about the Warriors game on the 25th. They trade above 2.50 now, but I would expect them to win or at least I think they trading way to high for their 3 Point skills and playing home will have the players pumped.

Would this be a good entry point getting matched before the game at such a price and trade out if warriors get a good start and if they go behind more than 1 or 2 back to back points trade out?

This would be my first approach on NBA, not sure if this is a good one. Market might also overreact and go above 3 or 4 on a run against the Warriors.

John said...

Are injuries, although less common, a factor in football? Injuries are a key driver in the NFL, especially when a starting quarterback goes down. Take a look at the Indianapolis Colts this season.

Weather is also a key factor in the NFL. I don't know much about football, but I would expect it play a factor, especially in the over/under markets.

To Tennis Trade Strategies: The Warriors are responsible for some big swings. Along with the Suns, they play the highest tempo of any NBA team. They are coached to shoot the ball within the first ten seconds of the shot clock. If the go cold shooting they can fall out of games easily.

Tennis Trade Strategies said...

now i see why price for warriors keep rising... biedrins and ellis out... injury... especially ellis is gonna hurt the team

gundulf said...

Thanks for that Cassini. As the last time I watched a basketball game it featured Meadowlark Lemon and Curly it would seem that I am out of touch with the money making opportunities presented.