Wednesday, 24 February 2010

Home Straight

In my previous post, I did rather mock the idea that value could be found in so many of the possible results of a football match, but I admit that I was rather looking at this from a punting rather than a trading perspective.

Although I still have my doubts about the viability of this approach, I can’t say that I have studied the price movements once a game is in-play in this market too closely, but the idea of trading certain scores certainly has some merit. My problem is that in-play football betting unfortunately just doesn’t work for me. As much as I enjoy football, far too many people are able to identify value better than I am.

It would be a boring world if we all had the same approach to skinning the cat, and if The Dark Horse can continue finding success with this strategy, then that is excellent.

As I wrote a few weeks ago, the sheer number of possible outcomes is a little overwhelming to my simple mind, thus my approach to this market has pretty much been limited to a pre-game punt on the two or three goal margins, so far profitably.

Back to the topic of in-play football betting, and I’ve really drifted away from it this season. My fingers were burned once too often, and with so many people taking an interest in the sport, I finally had to admit that if I was to find an edge in football, it wasn’t going to be found in-play.

That’s the reason why I invested my time on developing the spreadsheet and the pre-game predictions. It’s a much less stressful way of investing on football, and so far, more profitable.

Still some work to do, but I enjoy it. This season really seems to have flown by. (I’m told that as you get older, time speeds up). Just as we’re getting warmed up, and suddenly the end is in sight. Hopefully for some clubs, not literally, but my own Crystal Palace certainly have a bleak future, with a relegation fight on their hands while trying to find a buyer, and Portsmouth look certain to be playing at least one level lower next season, if they are playing at all. When Aldershot folded back in 1992, not too much attention was paid, but Crystal Palace, and to a lesser extent Portsmouth, are two rather more esteemed clubs than Aldershot ever were.


Anonymous said...

I noticed in your posts over a year ago you said you was finding it hard to make consistent profits from football.

With the new ratings system you use, would you now say you are making profit from football this season?

Cassini said...

Since starting in 2005-06, I have had just two profitable seasons on football, but I fully admit this was down to luck rather than good judgment. (Evidence, if needed, that in the short-term, it is quite possible to win even without having value).

This season, with a much more disciplined approach, I am again in profit, but this time I feel that the results I am getting are sustainable and down to good research and staking, rather than getting lucky. The profits are slow but steady, and while this may be boring to some, it suits me just fine.

Anonymous said...

As you mentioned trading in the post, have you ever thought about combining the trading with the ratings?

For example, if your ratings suggest a one goal win, then you back the team as normal and just lay it off once they get the one goal lead?

This would then mean your in a no-lose situation and late goals, red cards etc cant affect you..

Or do you think you may start to lose some of the odds value when you do this?

NoseAhead said...

Hi Cass,
I find your blog an interesting read and over time you seem to have found something which works for you!

You say it may seem boring to some, but making money for the majority of us never comes easy so stick with what your best at!
As the old saying goes ...
"If it aint bust why try and fix it"