Monday, 14 June 2010

Italy Defends The Cup

Yesterday was a very good day, with the basketball following on from the football and playing out almost exactly as I thought and hoped. The Unders bets were both won easily, and the under 178.5 (at 4.4) also came in by a single point which would have been a nice play, but I musn't be greedy.

The Lakers just don't seem to have the chemistry that the Celtics have, and now they need to win game six to stay alive. Home advantage is big, but the Celtics have the momentum and have already won a game in Los Angeles.

One or two more games left in the NBA season, and it's been a good one. Not as good as 2008-09 but the second best season to date.

Baseball liquidity picked up a little once the World Cup game was other, and as I wrote previously, allowed me to lock in a nice green on the Angels - Dodgers game, but again my profits are well behind schedule to match last season's record year.

With a 17 day break coming up in August, this year was always unlikely to match last years but if the money isn't there at the right price, there's no point in trying to force it.

Interest may yet pick up though. All six divisions are close with no team having more than a 2.5 game lead, and the play-offs attract some money.

Patience is essential in this game, which is why the threads and challenges on making 2% or 5% a day are so ridiculous. Some days the value opportunities are just not there.

Some interesting World Cup games today, with the match of the day for me being the Italy - Paraguay game. Paraguay have an awful record against European teams. Italy are notorious slow starters, so Italy at 1.55 on the Asian Handicap is the play here.

After watching the first few games with little investing, I'm gaining a little in confidence now and have some profits from the Germany game to play with. Kokooooo brought a value play to my attention the other day, and he deserves a mention and a pat on the back even if no share of the profits! Nice call.

The Netherlands - Denmark game should go to the Dutch, but the Danes are dangerous opponents and I'll just have an interest bet on the Netherlands at 1.55. As for the Cameroon - Japan game, I know nothing about either team and the Elo ratings for both are almost identical. A small back of the draw on this one with a view to trade.

Avanti Azurri!


JamesR said...

Italy are a very different side to the 2006 winning team so it'll be interesting to see how the play. As for Holland - they're my personal favourites. They play great football and have the ability to beat anyone on their day.

Anonymous said...

Re: liquidity comment on asian handicap. You were worried there wouldn't be enough liquidity and you may have been "stuck" with your position. Hardly a shrewd comment or one in keeping with someone who has had what they perceive to be a value bet.

Re: predictions. You seem to think you predicted things quite nicely. Again, not a sign of a shrewd punter. It's all about value. If, say, you backed an "over" at, for example, a price of 2.5, and the game finished as an over, would you be saying you predicted it correctly? Or would you be saying you had a value bet that won?

Re: Australia being tipped up - an obvious type. It's the same point as above. Successful bettors don't necessarily bet on what they think will happen.

Value, value, value...

Re: coming back for more. I like your blog, it's well written and in many ways is an interesting read. However, a lot of your methodology, your comments and so on are misleading to the average punter. I like to draw attention to these matters. But you seem to think every anonymous is the same one.