Wednesday, 23 June 2010

Coming Soon: England - Argentina?

Well, a couple of Doubting Thomases from the comment section put firmly in their place after that emphatic victory by England.

Since 1950, England have always won the third group game of a World Cup when they have had to, and haven't lost a third group game since that year, so 1.49 clearly was a value price in such a "must win" game. As stated before, there is no rule that says odds-on can't be value, and I'm rather regretting not putting my entire bonus on it.

While it is true that England did not play well in the opening games, that does not mean that England are suddenly not a good team. One of the advantages of age is that you have the experience of earlier World Cups, and know that it's a fine line between despair and ecstasy.

This World Cup has started exactly like 1990 with two draws (1-1 followed by 0-0), before a 1-0 win in the third game (against mighty Egypt) and we ended up almost winning the Cup that year. Losing on penalties doesn't really count.

When betting on the World Cup, you are always going to have a small sample of data to work with. If England played Slovenia in the same circumstances 100 times, I still think they would win more than 67 times. It's not just about who you play, but about when you play them, and the importance of gaining a result. If the games against Slovenia and Algeria were played the other way round, and we needed to beat Algeria to go through, it would have been a different game. That's why the first and second round group games are for fun bets only.

It's shaping up to be yet another England - Argentina Quarter-Final.


Anonymous said...

May have been value, may have not been. I think it probably was but not based on anything to do with the record in 3rd games since 1950. Presumably that wasn't really your reasoning?

Anonymous said...

rofl, england are not a good team, slovenia are a poor team hth

Sports Punter said...

'Emphatic'? Suffice to say I'll assume that was toungue in cheek ;-) Well done with the bet and great to see them through and playing with a bit more spirit.

Cassini said...

Yes, don't take the post too seriously anyone! Was it value or not - who knows? I liked it, but not because of 1950... Just pleased to see them get the win, and hope they are ready for Germany.

brian bee said...

It may have been value based on those stats, but if you factor in the way england have been playing and the current turmoil in the camp (john terry etc)... then surely you may have wanted a bit better price then 1.49?

Nathan said...

Hi Cassini
Would you make England fav against Germany?


Anonymous said...

Of course he would the last time they met it was 5-1, Cassini will pile in with those sort of stats :)

Cassini said...

..."last time they met it was 5-1" Are you sure? It was actually a 2-1 win in Berlin in 2008, and we lost 1-2 at Wembley the year before that!