Saturday, 19 June 2010

Misplaced Confidence

I wrote a few days that the Sports Betting Professor's tips had ceased, but I spoke too soon. They have been arriving, although I've been ignoring them.

However, while watching my money on Under 2.5 in the Cameroon - Denmark game evaporate, I've been going through the e-mails and bringing the resords up to date. He wrote in this afternoon's e-mail that

We've been going through a rough stretch this past week but stick with it because I'm confident things are going to turn up for us.
Having caught up on the season to date, he now has the less than impressive record of 97 Wins - 113 Losses and a net loss of 13.98 points. Where this confidence is coming from I have no idea. The guy clearly has no edge, and if there's money to be made, it's from laying his selections, not backing them.


Anonymous said...

Without necessarily suggesting he does have an edge - I doubt he does - you really can't state so categorically he doesn't have one off just a 210 bet sample.

Is the 97-113 off closing lines? Early lines? Lines he claimed to get? Lines you could get?

Cassini said...

The figures are using his own numbers, so they are as flattering as possible. I suspect the reality would be even worse. I take your point that 210 bets is not a big enough sample to determine for sure whether or not he has an edge, but with over 50% of his selections being at odds-on, that's a pretty poor record by any measure.