Wednesday, 9 June 2010

Value Plays

In between catching up and reviewing the Elo ratings, I have been able to find time to lose more money on the NBA Play-Offs. Laying the Lakers at 1.28 when up by 4 with about two minutes left was a value play that unfortunately didn’t deliver. The price moved out to 1.5 when the Celtics gained possession, but at that point greed kicked in and a basket would have had me sitting very pretty. Unfortunately for me, the Celtics turned the ball over and I had to go into damage control mode. Disappointing to lose, but the disappointment was tempered by the fact that it was a value play and the only approach at times like these is to be phlegmatic.

The baseball continues to be slow with thin liquidity on most markets. Forget trading the over / under markets. I forget what game it was at the weekend, but after 5 ½ innings with the away team ahead, the total was one short of the over. 1.3 looked value for the over, and I took it, but cautious fellow that I am, when a few more outs went by with no run, I looked to trade out. No chance. As it turned out, the total went over comfortably, and as I write this I remember it was the Los Angeles Angels who scored another four in the top of the seventh and all was well.

One other note from baseball at the weekend was that I was able to lay at 1.06 in the third inning of a 5-3 game. Value? I would say so. The trailing team came back to win in extra innings. One advantage of a thinly traded market is that it is surprisingly often that you can lay at silly prices. A one or two run lead in baseball with two thirds of the game to play is like a goal or two lead in ice-hockey in the first period. A good start, but assuming two evenly matched sides, not value at anything like 1.06.

The World Cup of course starts on Friday and Matt at Football Elite is covering the event which will provide some added interest. He sent out his ante-post picks yesterday along with a detailed explanation of the thinking behind them, which is always interesting to read even if one doesn’t necessarily agree with all of the conclusions.

It appears that the Sports Betting Professor has finally realized that he has received no money from me, as the e-mails with his picks have ceased. Unfortunately his e-mails trying to sell me horse racing, football (soccer), craps and just general crap systems haven’t. I saw no evidence of any edge in his picks, so they will not be missed.

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