Tuesday, 22 June 2010

Hot Chile

A couple of nice calls in my previous post with Switzerland a recommended lay at 2.3, now trading at 7.4, with Chile winning at 2.38. Now we get to the really interesting part of the World Cup, win or go home. OK, so some can afford to draw or even lose, but you get the idea.

There are also occasional arbitrage opportunities if you put in the work. Multiple exchange accounts not always required either. For example, Group B had Nigeria to qualify available to lay at 4.6 yesterday, yet the true odds based on the Match Odds should have been more like 5.2. (Argentina to win their third game are 1.63, Nigeria to win theirs, 3.2). All on Betfair.

With a draw a satisfactory result for both teams, it's not too surprising that Mexico v Uruguay is odds-on to be a draw, and 1.39 to be Under 2.5. 0-0 is 3.6.

South Africa at 2.24 DNB look worth a bet to me also. Even though France are well ahead in the Elo ratings, they are in sulk mode, and South Africa will surely be looking to go out with a win.


Anonymous said...

In the Uraguay/ Mexican game, there might be a twist as the runner up in this group will play Argentina, assuming of course that Argentina win their group.



Anonymous said...

Wow, I've been away a week and I'll have spend an afternoon going through the posts!!!