Tuesday, 29 June 2010

Slicer And The Holy Grail

I wrote several months ago about a wind-up merchant on the Betfair forum who goes by the name of Slicer and claims to have found the “Holy Grail” – a method guaranteed to result in a profit on all qualifying football matches.

The method consists of placing two bets before the game, and a third which is placed at Half-Time if the score is 0-0. Bet 1 is lay of this HT score, and Bet 2 is a back of the 0-0 Full-Time score, but the mischievous Slicer would have everyone believe that there is a Bet 3 that guarantees profits every time. There isn’t.

Unfortunately, any method worthy of being called a ‘Holy Grail’ can’t rely on a price being available on the exchanges after the event has gone in-play. That uncertainty alone is enough to raise questions, but nevertheless, it appears that he has fooled a lot of people who should probably know better, into thinking that such a Holy Grail exists.

It doesn’t. The football markets are the most studied and efficient of the non-horse racing markets on Betfair, and any guaranteed method would have long ago been identified, and any advantage long gone.

His claims must also have come to the attention of a Betfair employee or two, for whom it wouldn’t take more than a few minutes to research and identify any Bet 3.

His admirers have also apparently failed to consider the likelihood that any one individual brilliant enough to have achieved the impossible would be the type to advertise such a ‘fact’ on the Betfair forum.

It’s somewhat more likely that there actually is no Holy Grail, and that the Slicer character suffers from a low EQ.


Anonymous said...

lol I think we all know it's not only slicewr who suffers from an inflated ego. If you actually looked at the info he's given and looked at any of the matches you'd see the innefficiency within the market for those bets which only increases over time due to the fact the 0-0 is over priced in relation to the 0-0 at h/t

No doubt you're clever enough to figure it out yourself but there is a mathematical edge in those games and it's not that hard to exploit

brian bee said...

It worked but only just about and i expect it definitly wouldnt work today...

strugar said...

Well, at least the idea there is something like free money is enough amusing for everyone to try and catch that golden fish; so did I - when first heard of that myth, I spent about a week trying to prove myself to be smarter than probably thousands of betfairians who tried it before... to no avail, of course.

I don't know if you allow links to forums in your blog, but, for further reading, here is link to thread at UKBT, and then threads that annoying bloke with nick "kmabet" subsequently opened at PL and TDP, claiming that he solved "Holy Grail"; all threads caused a lot of interest and discussion, proving that people tend to accept the unbelievable if it promises profit, until realized that kmabet was only a cheater... and, as known long time ago, there is no such a thing like free meal...




Cassini said...