Monday, 28 June 2010

R16 - Day Three

Betfair's business really is booming these days, with customers in "209 countries at the last count".

Strange really; there aren't even 209 countries in the world. There aren't even 209 football teams affiliated to FIFA, so someone at Betfair towers is doing some creative accounting, perhaps to impress investors for an upcoming flotation.

The Round of 16 continues today with two intra-confederation matchups.

Netherlands (3) v Slovakia (45): The Netherlands are a far superior team and 1.5 Match Odds is a very generous price. The Dutch were eliminated at this stage by Portugal last time around, while Slovakia is in uncharted waters.

Brazil (1) v Chile (8): A match up that statistically is similar to the Argentina - Mexico game, and priced almost the same. As for that game, this is another where the favourite is value, this time at 1.59 on the Match Odds market.

The 'true' odds on the HT 0-0 market for this stage are 3.25. The above games can be layed at 2.84 and 2.9 respectively. Less value than earlier matches, but still value. Also worthy of note is that the last five tournaments have all had the one penalty shoot-out, and Paraguay, Japan, Spain and Portugal are all at 12 to go through on penalties.


Anonymous said...

The 209 number is approximately correct but would more than likely include a few territories.


Anonymous said...

Presumably betfair are breaking some laws then?

Anonymous said...

Brazil v Chile is similar to the Argentina v Mexico game in that 1.59 is certainly NOT value. But, yes, you are more than likely going to be able to come back and claim otherwise when they win.

Neil said...

How can you say that the 1.59 is not value Anonymous I am with Cassini it looks like value to me when you consider what England were trading at pre KO against Germany!

Anonymous said...

Consider what Argentina were trading at AT kick-off v Mexico.

Not quite sure what England have to do with it.