History Repeats

Four more winners today with first half goals in both matches, 6 for 6 so far in this round, and wins in 90 minutes for the favourite Netherlands and Brazil.

East London Anonymous questions whether 1.59 was value for Brazil and Argentina without providing any argument or evidence why he feels that way. (Why is it that Anonymouses a) feel they need to be Anonymous, b) tend to be negative and c) tend to be unable to back up their comments with any facts? He writes:

Brazil v Chile is similar to the Argentina v Mexico game in that 1.59 is certainly NOT value. But, yes, you are more than likely going to be able to come back and claim otherwise when they win.

Well, they both won, which of course doesn’t ‘prove’ the prices were value any more than two losses would have proved that they weren’t value, but the wins combined with the fact that both teams won in some comfort, and the historical data do all combine to suggest that 1.59 was more likely to have been value than not.

If the matches were to be replayed tomorrow, would both teams be 1.59 again? I would suggest not.

As I have written before, with World Cup betting you unavoidably have a small sample to work with.

In the Round of 16, strong favourites have a very good record, winning 73% of matches suggesting 1.37 is an approximate price to expect and in games such as the two we have had over the past couple of days, with strong favourites playing well, 1.59 seemed very generous. No clear favourites in tomorrow’s matches though, so we have another four years to wait for further data!